Timothy Sumer

The stock market has been hanging on to highs recently but economic data has been sending another message. With the focus being on the price of markets lately, I thought I would focus on some economic data that came out today and what I expect from future reactions. Pretty much, another recession box was checked today as the Philly Fed has finally fell below -30. This is important because we have never had a recession or massive amounts of unemployment without this index being that low. This doesn't mean we will have a recession immediately, but now it would make more sense if the next shock caused the recession, as the macro-economic conditions can support it. Beyond that, if economic data like the Philly Fed keep cratering, there is a good chance we will see the jobs market react next. If that happens, that will be the last shoe to drop for the economy and we will probably begin the recession then. Essentially, if we start crossing these macroeconomic thresholds, we wil...

One day after the historic downgrade on the US credit rating, traders and investors are trying to figure out if this will play out like last time. Despite the credit downgrade being the biggest focus of the day, something else happened in tandem that just added an extra layer of pressure to the economy and markets. I go over what happened with the Fitch downgrade today and what investors are thinking good and bad. Then I go over what the treasury announced today and how it plays apart of a bigger story. All in all, I think the whole situation is developing but it reminds me of the banking crisis. Its a big event with big implications but nothing the right stimulus/liquidity couldn't keep at pay temporarily. Sad but true until we become Japan. After this brief market recap and stock analysis, I go over 3 stocks for tomorrow and the trades I made today. THIS IS NOT A RECOMMENDATION OR FINACNIAL ADVICE I AM NOT A LICENSED FINANCIAL ADVISOR POST YOUR WATCHLIST BELOW AND S...