Timothy Sumer

The stock market has been hanging on to highs recently but economic data has been sending another message. With the focus being on the price of markets lately, I thought I would focus on some economic data that came out today and what I expect from future reactions. Pretty much, another recession box was checked today as the Philly Fed has finally fell below -30. This is important because we have never had a recession or massive amounts of unemployment without this index being that low. This doesn't mean we will have a recession immediately, but now it would make more sense if the next shock caused the recession, as the macro-economic conditions can support it. Beyond that, if economic data like the Philly Fed keep cratering, there is a good chance we will see the jobs market react next. If that happens, that will be the last shoe to drop for the economy and we will probably begin the recession then. Essentially, if we start crossing these macroeconomic thresholds, we wil

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🎨 Skip the waitlist and invest in blue-chip art for the very first time by signing up for Masterworks: Purchase shares in great masterpieces from artists like Pablo Picasso, Banksy, Andy Warhol, and more. See important Masterworks disclosures: I do not think the market is pricing in the real possibility of another peak in inflation. When all of these things make it into the data that Fed looks at over the next few months, Jerome Powell might surprise the market by raising interest rates higher than expected or keep them higher longer than expected, or both. That doesn’t mean another 75 basis point raise on interest rates right now. It could be a couple 25 basis point raises that turn into 50. Or a couple 50 basis point raises that turn into 75. Or that interest rates stay closer to 4% instead of 3.25 through 2025. But here's the thing: Rents account for 32% of the CPI, don’t actually go down very often, and can lag the rest of the CPI by up to a year. Energy accounts