Timothy Sumer

The stock market has been hanging on to highs recently but economic data has been sending another message. With the focus being on the price of markets lately, I thought I would focus on some economic data that came out today and what I expect from future reactions. Pretty much, another recession box was checked today as the Philly Fed has finally fell below -30. This is important because we have never had a recession or massive amounts of unemployment without this index being that low. This doesn't mean we will have a recession immediately, but now it would make more sense if the next shock caused the recession, as the macro-economic conditions can support it. Beyond that, if economic data like the Philly Fed keep cratering, there is a good chance we will see the jobs market react next. If that happens, that will be the last shoe to drop for the economy and we will probably begin the recession then. Essentially, if we start crossing these macroeconomic thresholds, we wil...