The risk of Australia falling into recession is growing, as the outlook for the global economy deteriorates. We explore what will happen to businesses, jobs, house prices and shares in 2023. Subscribe: Read more here: 00:00 Introduction 1:30 - 2:03 The risks of recession in 2023 2:04 - 3:21 Where to put your money 3:22 - 4:30 What about resources? 4:31 - 5:12 Blue chip stocks 5:13 - 5:58 Impact of a US recession on the share market 6:00 - 10:08 The economic impact of Russia's invasion of Ukraine 10:09 - 10:52 Will the US fall into recession? 10:53 - 11:44 How likely is a recession in Australia? 11:45 - 12:22 Could we talk ourselves into a recession? 12:23 - 13:01 What will 2023 feel like? 13:02 - 14:01 House price predictions 14:02 - 14:38 How will households cope with higher interest rates? ABC News In-depth takes you deeper on the big stories, with long-form journalism from Four Corners, Foreign Correspondent, Australian Story, Planet America and more, and explainers from ABC News Video Lab. Watch more ABC News content ad-free on ABC iview: For more from ABC News, click here: Get breaking news and livestreams from our ABC News channel: Like ABC News on Facebook: Follow ABC News on Instagram: Follow ABC News on Twitter: Note: In most cases, our captions are auto-generated. #ABCNewsIndepth #ABCNewsAustralia #AusBiz...(read more)
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Title: How Likely is a Recession in 2023? Introduction As we inch closer to the year 2023, the question on everyone's minds is whether an economic downturn, commonly known as a recession, is imminent. Economic forecasts have always been surrounded by uncertainty, and predicting recessions is no exception. Nevertheless, experts have been tirelessly analyzing various factors that could influence the global economy, trying to gauge the likelihood of a recession in 2023. In this article, we will examine some key indicators and expert opinions to assess the probability of a recession materializing in the near future. Economic Indicators: A Mixed Bag When determining the possibility of a recession, economists commonly rely on several key indicators, such as GDP growth rate, unemployment rate, inflation, and consumer sentiment. To get a comprehensive understanding of the global economic climate, experts analyze these indicators at both national and international levels. Currently, the global economy is on the road to recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. Major economies have rebounded strongly, contributing to overall growth. GDP growth rates have been positive in most countries, demonstrating initial signs of a robust recovery. Simultaneously, unemployment rates are declining as businesses are rehiring workers, and consumer sentiment appears to be improving. These positive indicators suggest a lower likelihood of an immediate recession in 2023. Nevertheless, economists also point out some concerning trends that could potentially trigger an economic downturn. Rising inflation rates and potential overheating in certain sectors might result in central banks tightening their monetary policy, which could dampen economic growth. Additionally, ongoing geopolitical tensions and trade disputes could disrupt global supply chains, negatively affecting trade and commerce. These factors, though not definitive predictors, raise caution flags and remind us that forecasting recessions is challenging. Expert Opinions: Varied Perspectives When it comes to forecasting recessions, economists often hold varied opinions. While some experts foresee smooth sailing for the global economy in 2023, others voice concerns about underlying vulnerabilities that might create headwinds. It is crucial to approach these forecasts with an understanding that they represent informed speculation rather than absolute certainties. Optimistic experts argue that various fiscal and monetary policies implemented by governments and central banks worldwide should continue to pave the way for economic growth. Additionally, the gradual easing of travel restrictions will stimulate sectors hit hardest by the pandemic, such as tourism and hospitality. These factors contribute to a positive outlook for the years to come and suggest a lower probability of a recession. Conversely, some economists highlight risks that might lead to a potential economic downturn in 2023. They point out that fiscal stimulus measures have created high levels of debt, which could become unsustainable if not managed effectively. Moreover, geopolitical tensions, climate change, and potential unforeseen events like natural disasters or financial shocks could destabilize the global economy. These uncertainties remind us that the absence of immediate recession indicators does not guarantee complete immunity. Conclusion Predicting an economic recession is an arduous task even for the most experienced economists. While some indicators suggest a continuation of the global economic recovery, cautionary factors must not be overlooked. Although the probability of a recession in 2023 seems relatively low at present, the complex interplay of economic variables and future unforeseen events can quickly alter the landscape. As individuals, businesses, and policymakers, it is crucial to remain informed and actively monitor developments in the global economy. 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