Eric Basmajian, economist and founder of EPB Research, discusses the major threats to the economy, how a recession is defined by the NBER, and the sectors and jobs most at risk from a pending economic contraction. *This video was recorded on June 23, 2023 FOLLOW ERIC BASMAJIAN EPB Research: Twitter (@EPBResearch): YouTube channel: FOLLOW DAVID LIN: Twitter (@davidlin_TV): TikTok (@davidlin_TV): Instagram (@davidlin_TV): For business inquiries, reach me at david@thedavidlinreport.com *This video is not financial advice. The channel is not responsible for the performance of sponsors and affiliates. 0:00 - Intro 1:10 - Fed pause and stocks 5:28 - Credit contraction 11:00 - Interest rate direction 14:00 - Delinquency rate on credit cards 19:20 - Economy is stressed 21:00 - Retail sales 24:11 - Probability of a recession 30:55 - Bear market rally 33:30 - NBER definition of recession 40:48 - When is the recession coming? 44:00 - Jobs most at risk 48:50 - Real estate 55:55 - "Unbelievable collapse in demand" #economy #investing #recession...(read more)
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Are Millions About to Lose Jobs as Recession Nears? With the global economy reeling from the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, concerns about an imminent recession and job losses have become increasingly prevalent. As businesses shut down, supply chains break, and consumer demand plummets, economies worldwide are grappling with major disruptions. As a result, millions of jobs are at risk, and the potential for a devastating economic downturn looms large. The current crisis has led to an unparalleled shock to many industries. Sectors such as travel, hospitality, retail, and entertainment have been particularly hard-hit, witnessing drastic declines in revenue and widespread lay-offs. The air travel industry, for instance, has seen a significant reduction in flights, leading to substantial job losses for pilots, flight attendants, and ground staff. Similarly, hotels and restaurants have struggled to stay afloat with limited demand, causing thousands of workers to be furloughed or permanently laid off. The slowdown in economic activity is not limited to specific sectors. The cascading effects of supply chain disruptions are felt across industries, with manufacturing, construction, and even technology sectors experiencing setbacks. Small and medium-sized businesses, often major contributors to employment, are bearing the brunt of the economic turmoil, struggling to survive and retain their workforce. To mitigate the impending crisis, governments and central banks worldwide have implemented numerous measures. Fiscal stimulus packages have been rolled out to support businesses and preserve jobs, while central banks have slashed interest rates to inject liquidity into the financial system. Additionally, employment protection schemes and funds have been introduced to safeguard workers and minimize job losses. However, the efficacy of these measures remains uncertain, as the severity and duration of the recession are still unclear. It is worth noting that the economic downturn and job losses are not solely caused by the pandemic. Many economies were already grappling with structural issues and slowing growth even before the crisis took hold. The pandemic simply acted as a catalyst, rapidly escalating the challenges and straining the global economy further. The effects of job losses and a recession extend far beyond individuals and businesses. High unemployment rates can lead to decreased consumer spending, further exacerbating economic struggles. With reduced disposable income and fearful economic prospects, people are more likely to cut back on luxury expenditures, resulting in losses across sectors. This ripple effect can create a vicious cycle of declining revenues, leading to further job losses and economic contraction. To avert such a scenario, governments need to pursue a multi-faceted approach. Ensuring effective public health measures to control the pandemic becomes crucial, allowing for a gradual reopening of the economy and a return to normalcy. Furthermore, governments should focus on creating an environment conducive to business growth and innovation, offering financial support, and simplifying regulatory frameworks. Encouraging entrepreneurship and reskilling individuals for emerging industries can also pave the way for greater job creation. While the road to recovery may be long and arduous, it is essential to remember that the world has rebounded from previous recessions. By learning from past experiences and implementing thoughtful policies, the potential for job losses can be mitigated, creating opportunities for economic renewal and growth. In conclusion, with the recession looming, millions of jobs are indeed at risk. The extent of job losses will depend on the duration and severity of the economic downturn, as well as the effectiveness of government interventions. Timely and well-coordinated measures, coupled with global cooperation, can help alleviate the impact on employment and foster a resilient and sustainable recovery. https://inflationprotection.org/is-a-massive-job-loss-imminent-as-the-recession-approaches/?feed_id=122403&_unique_id=64c6155c07bcd #Inflation #Retirement #GoldIRA #Wealth #Investing #business #businessnews #davidlin #davidlineconomics #davidlinfinance #davidlininvesting #davidlintrading #davidlinyoutube #economics #economicsnews #economy #epbresearch #ericbasmajian #ericbasmajianepbresearch #fed #federalreserve #Finance #financenews #financialnews #housingmarket #interestrates #investing #jeromepowell #jobmarket #labormarket #macroeconomics #monetarypolicy #realestate #recession #stockmarket #thedavidlinreport #Trading #RecessionNews #business #businessnews #davidlin #davidlineconomics #davidlinfinance #davidlininvesting #davidlintrading #davidlinyoutube #economics #economicsnews #economy #epbresearch #ericbasmajian #ericbasmajianepbresearch #fed #federalreserve #Finance #financenews #financialnews #housingmarket #interestrates #investing #jeromepowell #jobmarket #labormarket #macroeconomics #monetarypolicy #realestate #recession #stockmarket #thedavidlinreport #Trading
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