This week, the self-moderating GoodFellows (Bill Whalen is on vacation) ponder why the much predicted recession hasn’t materialized—at least not yet. The Fellows also discuss the national security implications of a recession and why some economists may be a little too optimistic about economic conditions in the near future. Then, we check back in on the war in Ukraine and close with some thoughts about summer, featuring a cameo appearance from General Funkenstein himself.
ABOUT THE SERIES
GoodFellows, a weekly Hoover Institution broadcast, features senior fellows John Cochrane, Niall Ferguson, and H.R. McMaster discussing the social, economic, and geostrategic ramifications of this changed world. They can’t banter over lunch these days, but they continue their spirited conversation online about what comes next, as we look forward to an end to the crisis.
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00:00 Introduction
1:28 Where did the recession go, is it just starting?
5:53 Banking Crisis
7:42 Other Geopolitical shocks + Inflation rates/numbers
14:18 What will happen to the interest rate hikes? + Labor Market
19:54 Housing and Debt + Capacity and Defense Budget
29:09 Ukraine joining Nato + Cold War II
41:51 How is it going with China + who is winning?
46:56 Lighting Round...(read more)
BREAKING: Recession News LEARN MORE ABOUT: Bank Failures REVEALED: Best Investment During Inflation HOW TO INVEST IN GOLD: Gold IRA Investing
In recent years, the global economy has faced numerous challenges and setbacks, which have led many to wonder when the next recession will strike. The world is always on high alert, waiting for the economic dogs to start barking. However, the current situation seems to contradict this notion, as we are experiencing a recession that didn't quite bark. The term "recession" often evokes negative connotations, sending shivers down the spines of economists and the general public alike. Recession is traditionally associated with declining economic growth, high unemployment rates, and a general contraction in business activity. It is a period of economic turmoil that can have severe consequences for individuals, businesses, and even entire countries. When the COVID-19 pandemic hit in early 2020, it seemed like the perfect catalyst for a major recession. Lockdowns and travel restrictions resulted in businesses shuttering their doors, millions of people losing their jobs, and consumer spending grinding to a halt. Economists and experts around the world predicted a devastating recession that would take years to recover from. However, in an unexpected turn of events, the global economy rebounded more quickly than anyone could have anticipated. Governments and central banks swiftly implemented large-scale fiscal and monetary stimulus measures, providing much-needed support to businesses and individuals. These measures softened the initial blow of the pandemic and helped prevent a complete economic collapse. One key reason why this recession didn't bark as loudly as anticipated was the resilience of some sectors and the rapid adaptation of businesses to the changing environment. While industries like travel, hospitality, and retail suffered significant blows, others, such as technology, e-commerce, and healthcare, flourished. Businesses quickly adopted new technologies and shifted their operations online, allowing them to continue operating and even thrive during the crisis. Moreover, the unprecedented speed with which vaccines were developed and distributed helped restore confidence in the global economy. As vaccination rates increased, travel restrictions eased, and consumer spending rebounded. This trend not only aided the recovery but also prevented a prolonged recession. Additionally, the rise of remote work proved to be a boon for many employees and companies. The shift to remote work allowed businesses to continue their operations with minimal disruption, while employees enjoyed a better work-life balance and saved time and money on commuting. This transition also opened opportunities for businesses to tap into a global talent pool, further unlocking economic growth potential. While this recession might not have barked as loudly, it would be premature to dismiss its lasting impacts entirely. Inequality has been exacerbated, with marginalized groups disproportionately affected. Small businesses, especially those in the hardest-hit sectors, have faced immense challenges and closures. Governments worldwide now face the task of rebuilding and addressing these social and economic disparities. Nevertheless, the fact that the recession didn't bark as predicted offers a glimmer of hope for the future. It shows that the global economy has become more resilient and adaptable to rapidly changing circumstances. Lessons learned from this period can guide us in preparing for future challenges and developing more flexible economic frameworks. As we navigate the uncertain economic landscape, it is crucial to remain vigilant. While this particular recession may not have barked as loudly, it should serve as a reminder that potential threats still loom on the horizon. Adapting to new technologies, embracing remote work, and creating inclusive economic policies will be crucial in ensuring that the global economy remains resilient and prepared for future challenges. https://inflationprotection.org/a-silent-recession-unveiling-the-untold-story-goodfellows/?feed_id=140687&_unique_id=6515ced5be318 #Inflation #Retirement #GoldIRA #Wealth #Investing #americaneconomics #bankingcrisis #economicforecast #economics #gdp #GoodFellows #H.R.McMaster #historyofrecession #hooverinstitution #increasedprices #inflation #interestrates #johncochrane #monetarypolicy #nationalsecurity #NiallFerguson #recession #RussianWar #stockmarket #Summervacation #Treasury #U.S.economicconditions #U.S.economy #ukrainewar #unemployment #USdebt #RecessionNews #americaneconomics #bankingcrisis #economicforecast #economics #gdp #GoodFellows #H.R.McMaster #historyofrecession #hooverinstitution #increasedprices #inflation #interestrates #johncochrane #monetarypolicy #nationalsecurity #NiallFerguson #recession #RussianWar #stockmarket #Summervacation #Treasury #U.S.economicconditions #U.S.economy #ukrainewar #unemployment #USdebt
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