Timothy Sumer

Yankee legend Yogi Berra famously said, “It’s deja vu all over again,” one of his many memorable expressions. That’s the way I feel this week. The “deja vu all over again” is the theme of “Don’t fight the Fed.” The Federal Reserve's recent pivot from inflation promoter to inflation fighter puts that adage front and center in the current debate between the bulls and the bears. This week’s guest has been following that dictum during his 40-year investment career. He has been bullish since the Fed opened the monetary spigots in 2009. He is Ed Yardeni, a Ph.D. economist, long-time Fed watcher, and investment strategist who is widely followed by institutional investors. He is also the author of several books. The latest, In Praise of Profits! is dedicated to progressives to help them understand that “profits isn’t a four-letter word.” Another Yardeni book is Fed Watching for Fun and Profit: a Primer for Investors, which we discussed in-depth in an earlier interview. I...

The consensus for the economy is bullish. After a 6.4% annualized increase in real GDP, that's without inflation, in the first quarter, recent forecasts are for 10% GDP growth in the second quarter, 7.5% in the 3rd, and 5% in the fourth. As for inflation expectations, they are up. Again the consensus is that the combination of a rapidly rebounding economy, supply shortages, and tight labor market will lead to a sustained rise in prices. The most prominent skeptic on that front is Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and other Fed officials who believe the price increases we are seeing now are transitory. This week's guest, influential economist Dave Rosenberg is in the Powell camp on this one and believes the recent jump in inflation is temporary and that the overall bullishness on the economy and markets is wrong and will be challenged before the year ends. Dave Rosenberg is the outspoken and often contrarian Chief Economist and Strategist at his independent ec...

#inflation #stockmarket #globalinvestment Volatility is the name of this market’s game. The Dow and S&P 500 both entered bear markets this week, although they both put up a brief fight with a robust rally on Wednesday. Yields on U.S. Treasury securities also bounced around. These stomach-churning moves are hard to ignore unless you can take a longer view. This week’s guest is focusing on bigger investment themes and identifying cheap global sectors as the market sorts things out. A year ago on WEALTHTRACK, in September of 2021, Research Affiliates’ Rob Arnott made two macro observations. One, he predicted there were “very high odds” of a resurgence in inflation. Two, that the multi-year outperformance of growth over value stocks was probably finally over. He dated the turn to August of 2020. He proved prescient on the inflation call and so far seems to have gotten value’s comeback right. Rob Arnott is Chairman of the Board and Founder of Research Affiliates, which...

How times have changed. It wasn’t many months ago that the entire financial world was singing the praises of inflation. The greatest fear among Wall Streeters and other financial lights was lower prices that might actually decline more and turn into that monster known as deflation. The thought conjured up nightmarish scenes of bread lines and bank runs. Ever since the global financial crisis of 2008 and especially since the Covid pandemic, central banks and governments around the world have pulled out all stops to prevent such an occurrence. And guess what? It finally worked. After declining since the early 1980s, inflation has roared back to life, recently hitting 40-year highs. But no one is celebrating. In fact, now central banks around the world have declared war on inflation, and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is leading the charge. The Fed has dramatically raised the federal funds rate several times this year, with more action to come. This week’s guest h...

It's been four decades since inflation has played such a powerful role in the economy and markets. How inflation goes will have a big impact on the level of interest rates, economic growth, and the direction of the financial markets. Today central banks around the world have their work cut out for them. Global inflation rates are running far above the target inflation rates set by central banks. The U.S., the eurozone, and the U.K. are prime examples with high inflation and low targets. Countries like Poland, Russia, and the Czech Republic are under extreme pressure with extraordinarily elevated inflation. The two exceptions, China, where inflation is running below its target rate, and Japan, where they are about equal, are at the opposite end of the spectrum. This week’s guest says inflation is the key to the economy and markets. He is Jack McIntyre, Portfolio Manager with Brandywine Global Investment Management. McIntrye says the direction of the economy and market...