The consensus for the economy is bullish. After a 6.4% annualized increase in real GDP, that's without inflation, in the first quarter, recent forecasts are for 10% GDP growth in the second quarter, 7.5% in the 3rd, and 5% in the fourth. As for inflation expectations, they are up. Again the consensus is that the combination of a rapidly rebounding economy, supply shortages, and tight labor market will lead to a sustained rise in prices. The most prominent skeptic on that front is Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and other Fed officials who believe the price increases we are seeing now are transitory. This week's guest, influential economist Dave Rosenberg is in the Powell camp on this one and believes the recent jump in inflation is temporary and that the overall bullishness on the economy and markets is wrong and will be challenged before the year ends. Dave Rosenberg is the outspoken and often contrarian Chief Economist and Strategist at his independent economic consulting firm Rosenberg Research. I began the interview by asking Rosenberg why he is as convinced that the bullish consensus is wrong as he was when he went against the crowd at the height of the tech bubble in 2000 and the housing bubble in 2007. 00:00 Hello 00:46 Introduction 02:58 Interview with David Rosenberg 22:45 One Investment 24:35 Action Point WEALTHTRACK #1750 broadcast on June 11, 2021 More Info: For more detail about the evidence behind Dave Rosenberg's convictions, he is generously sharing a recent comprehensive report, "No New Era" with us. Sign up for your copy. ...(read more)
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Inflation Is Temporary: Bullishness on the Economy & Markets Is Wrong [2021] Inflation is often seen as a negative force on the economy and markets. Rising prices can make it harder for people to afford the goods and services they need, and it can also eat away at the value of savings and investments. However, it's important to remember that inflation is not always a sign of economic decline – sometimes it can be a sign of growth. In 2021, there has been a lot of talk about inflation, with some investors and analysts expressing bullishness on the economy and markets. The argument goes that higher prices are a sign of strong demand as consumers and businesses spend more, and that this will ultimately lead to higher profits and a stronger overall economy. However, there are several reasons to be cautious about this bullish narrative. For one thing, much of the recent increase in inflation is tied to supply chain disruptions and recovering from pandemic-related disruptions. As economies reopen, demand for goods has surged, but many factories and shipping companies are struggling to keep up with the pace. This has driven up prices for things like raw materials, transportation, and labor, all of which are important inputs for producing goods. While these challenges are real, they are likely to be temporary. Eventually, factories and shipping companies will catch up with demand, and prices will likely stabilize or even decline. This isn't to say that the economy won't remain strong or that markets won't continue to rise, but it does suggest that any bullishness based primarily on rising prices may be premature. Another factor to consider is the role of government stimulus in boosting the economy. While recent stimulus packages have been credited with helping people and businesses get through the pandemic, they also run the risk of driving up inflation. When people have more money to spend, and there are constraints on the supply of goods and services, prices will naturally rise. Again, this doesn't mean that government stimulus is bad or that the economy won't benefit from it. However, it does suggest that the effects of stimulus on the economy and markets may be more complex than simply driving up prices and boosting profits. Overall, it's important to be cautious about bullishness on the economy and markets in the face of rising inflation. While higher prices may signal some positive economic trends, they are also likely to be temporary and should not be seen as the sole driver of market performance. As always, a diversified and balanced portfolio remains the best way to navigate the complex and ever-changing world of investing. https://inflationprotection.org/incorrect-bullishness-on-the-economy-markets-inflation-is-just-transient-2021/?feed_id=82405&_unique_id=6423b79d14472 #Inflation #Retirement #GoldIRA #Wealth #Investing #BullMarket #ConsueloMack #consuelomackwealthtrack #davidrosenberg #economy #inflation #inflation2021 #kitconews #peterschiff #StansberryResearch #wealthtrack #WEALTHTRACK #wealthtrackthisweek #InvestDuringInflation #BullMarket #ConsueloMack #consuelomackwealthtrack #davidrosenberg #economy #inflation #inflation2021 #kitconews #peterschiff #StansberryResearch #wealthtrack #WEALTHTRACK #wealthtrackthisweek
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