Possible Delay, but Not Avoidance: Three Factors that May Postpone a U.S. Recession

The U.S. economy has been strong so far in 2023, with jobs growth continuing, GDP rising and inflation slowing. But several cracks in the economic armor have started to appear. Top economists and money managers are starting to worry that the recession that was predicted for 2023 could just be arriving a little later than expected. 0:00 Potential recession 0:40 Government stimulus programs 1:52 Lower-income household savings 2:58 Fed interest rates I’m Dion Rabouin, a WSJ reporter covering markets and the economy. I’ll be diving into all things finance, from the popular and well-known — like crypto and stocks — to the complex and intricate — like leveraged loans, derivatives and private equity. Subscribe to join me as I take a deep dive into what’s making money move and why it matters. #Recession #Economy #DionRabouin...(read more)

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Three Reasons a U.S. Recession May Be Delayed, Not Averted The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic sent shockwaves across the global economy, and the United States was no exception. With businesses forced to shut down, record unemployment rates, and a stock market plunge, fears of an impending recession loomed large. However, while some experts believe that the worst is over and a recession has been averted, others caution that it may only be delayed. Here are three reasons why a U.S. recession may be delayed, rather than completely avoided: 1. Unemployment and job insecurity: Even as the economy starts to slowly reopen, the rampant unemployment caused by the pandemic is unlikely to disappear overnight. Millions of individuals have lost their jobs and it will take time for those positions to be restored. Moreover, those who have managed to retain their jobs may face reduced working hours or lower wages due to the decrease in consumer demand. High levels of unemployment and job insecurity will inevitably impact consumer spending, which is a vital driver of economic growth. As a result, the overall economy may struggle to regain its pre-pandemic stability, making a recession more likely in the near future. 2. Business closures and bankruptcies: The closure of businesses during the pandemic leads to a cascading effect on the economy. Small businesses, in particular, are more vulnerable to closure due to limited access to capital and resources during these uncertain times. Many businesses have already filed for bankruptcy, and more may follow suit as they struggle to recover from the financial losses incurred during the lockdown period. This wave of closures and bankruptcies will have lasting repercussions on the economy, as it not only affects employment but also disrupts entire supply chains. The long-term impact of these closures will likely impede economic recovery and increase the probability of a recession. 3. Global economic slowdown: The pandemic has not only affected the United States but has also had a significant impact on the global economy. Major economies around the world are grappling with the aftermath of the pandemic, experiencing their own economic downturns. This global slowdown may have severe adverse effects on U.S. exports, which will further hamper economic growth. In addition, disruptions to global supply chains and decreased foreign investment will impact multiple sectors of the national economy. This interconnectedness of global markets renders the U.S. susceptible to the repercussions of a worldwide economic downturn, making a delayed recession more likely. While various fiscal and monetary policies have been implemented by the government to mitigate the effects of the pandemic, it remains uncertain whether these measures will be enough to prevent a recession altogether. The resilience of the U.S. economy and its ability to weather the storm will depend on various factors, including the duration of the pandemic, consumer confidence, and the effectiveness of government interventions. In conclusion, while the early signs of economic recovery may offer a glimmer of hope, it is important to recognize that a U.S. recession may be delayed, rather than completely averted. The challenges posed by high unemployment rates, business closures, and the global economic slowdown cannot be disregarded. As the nation rebuilds its economy, it will be crucial to monitor these factors closely to assess the potential trajectory of a recession and implement appropriate policies to mitigate its impact. https://inflationprotection.org/possible-delay-but-not-avoidance-three-factors-that-may-postpone-a-u-s-recession/?feed_id=137138&_unique_id=65079746a8d2c #Inflation #Retirement #GoldIRA #Wealth #Investing #chipsact #CostofLivingAdjustment #delayedrecession #economicgrowth #EconomyCollapse #economycrash2023 #economynews #fed #federalreserve #governmentcontractors #governmentprograms #governmentstimulus2023 #inflationnews #inflationrate #jeromepowell #mkts #pandemicsavings #potentialrecession #recession #recession2023 #recessionnews #recessionwatch #snapbenefits #socialsecurity #softlanding #stimulusprograms #U.S.Recession #WallStreet #wsj #RecessionNews #chipsact #CostofLivingAdjustment #delayedrecession #economicgrowth #EconomyCollapse #economycrash2023 #economynews #fed #federalreserve #governmentcontractors #governmentprograms #governmentstimulus2023 #inflationnews #inflationrate #jeromepowell #mkts #pandemicsavings #potentialrecession #recession #recession2023 #recessionnews #recessionwatch #snapbenefits #socialsecurity #softlanding #stimulusprograms #U.S.Recession #WallStreet #wsj